Is it all over but the shouting?

"Here are the results of a recent survey."


It’s less than 40 days before the midterm elections but based from almost all polling firms, it’s highly unlikely for the Ocho Diretso to score an upset, except maybe for 2016 losing presidential candidate, Mar Roxas.  

In the latest survey conducted by The Center, four of the seven incumbent senators who are running for reelection in the scheduled May 13, 2019 national elections are deemed sure of getting reelected. They will most likely be joined in the Senate when the 18th Congress opens in July, 2019 by three former senators and three newcomers from the executive department.

The Center released the results of its nationwide survey on senatorial preferences which was conducted on March 24-30, 2019 with some 1,800 respondents that cut across all demographic lines and has a confidence level of 98% and a margin of error of +3%.

The Center said that if the elections are to be held on the days the survey was extracted, the most likely winners will be:

Sen. Grace Poe who continues to lead the field with 64%. Not far behind is Sen. Cynthia Villar in second spot with 57% while former Sen. Lito Lapid is at third with 51%. Sharing the fourth to fifth spots are Sen. Sonny Angara with 47% and Representative and former Sen. Pia Cayetano with 45%.

In 6th to 7th places are: Former Special Assistant to the President Bong Go (44.7%) and Sen. Nancy Binay (43.4%), respectively. Sharing the 8th to 11thplaces are: Former Sen. Jinggoy Estrada (36.3%), former Presidential Political Adviser Francis Tolentino (35.4%), former Philippine National Police Director General Bato dela Rosa (34.7%) and, former Sen. Mar Roxas (34.3%). The Center pointed out that if the voting pattern based on the preferences of those surveyed will hold as the election nears, it is safe to conclude that those in the 8th to 11th places have more than an even chance of getting elected.

Ed Malay of The Center said that even if the cast of the 2019 senatorial elections begins to take shape with roughly 40 days to go before the polling booths open on May 13, 2019, the six other candidates who are lodged from the 12th to the 17th spots still have a mathematical chance of pulling it through to the winners’ bracket. This will all depend on how their respective political strategies will adapt to the political landscape that is far different from the previous electoral exercises.

The six candidates who share the 12th to 17th spots are: Former Sen. Bong Revilla (32.7%), Sen. Koko Pimentel (32%), Sen. Bam Aquino (31.4%), Gov. Imee Marcos (30.9%), Sen. JV Ejercito (29.4%) and former Sen. Serge Osmena (28.7%).

The Center said the lead and positioning of Ms. Poe which has been consistent since the campaign period started in February will most probably hold up to May 13, 2019. It said that the last-ditch efforts to improve on their standings will make the senatorial race interesting especially for those in the 8th to 12th places as the campaign period draws to a close two days before the elections. 

At the same time, The Center also released its assessment of the what it calls the “Current Status of the Mayoralty Race in the National Capital Region.” In the same survey conducted by The Center, it showed that most of the incumbent Local Chief Executives are winning with safe margins except for Quezon City Mayor Joy Belmonte whose single-digit lead (+6%) is being challenged by Rep. Bingbong Crisologo who is being backed financially by Luis ‘Chavit’ Singson.

The results of the survey for the NCR mayoralty race are as follows: Caloocan City Mayor Oscar Malapitan is almost unopposed with a +97%; Mayor Mel Aguilar is assured of another term with a +93% advantage in Las Pinas; Antolin Oreta III enjoys a +59% lead over his nearest rival in Malabon; Makati Mayor Abby Binay has a +33.37% lead over her brother former Mayor Junjun Binay and a +49.60% lead over Ricky Yabut; It will also be Toby Tiangco in Navotas with a +69% advantage.

The elections in Mandaluyong City and Pasay City are all over except the shouting with Mandaluyong Mayor Menchie Abalos nursing a +94% lead and Rep. Emi Calixto Rubiano enjoying a comfortable +60% lead over Chet Cuneta in Pasay City. 

In Manila, former Vice Mayor Isko Moreno continues to hold sway with a safe +20.28% lead over Mayor Erap Estrada and a +25.20% edge over former Mayor Alfredo Lim. In Marikina, Mayor Marcy Teodoro will surely be reelected with a +92% advantage while Muntinlupa Mayor Jimmy Fresnedi is safe with a +18% lead over his rivals.

In Paranaque City, Mayor Edwin Olivarez is gunning for reelection and is enjoying a +28% advantage over former Mayor Jun Bernabe while Pasig City Mayor Bobby Eusebio continues to lead Vico Sotto with a +52% advantage. In Pateros, it will still be Mayor Ike Ponce who has a +38% lead over his nearest rival while former Rep. Lino Cayetano is looking to becoming Mayor of Taguig with a +15% lead over the other mayoral candidates. It will still be Mayor Rex Gatchalian in Valenzuela with a +95% advantage while Francis Zamora leads Janelle Estrada with +17% in San Juan. 

* * * 

I would like to extend my sincerest gratitude to Ms. Karen Joy Parada and her cousin-in-law, Minami Parada for being terrific hosts. True to their ad, their place was just about three minutes away from Vigan’s heritage site, Calle Crisologo. And their Glasshouse accommodation exceeded our expectation.

One drawback in Vigan, however, I believe, is how the local government has given its consent for tricycle drivers to exploit the tourists.

In an ordinance enacted by the City Government of Vigan, it authorized tricycle drivers to charge P10 per passenger from 6:00 in the evening to 6:00 in the morning. I just can’t understand the logic why the additional charge when it still covers the same distance.

It’s just not the appropriate way to promote local tourism.

Topics: Charlie Manalo , midterm elections , The Center , senatorial candidates
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